Forecasts
Yearly and monthly forecasts for revenue, market share, CAC/CPA, and more
Laurence forecasts your revenue, units, and ad spend day by day, then shows exactly what more or less ad spend would get you.
- Units a day
- 862 → 895
- Next unit costs
- $14 → $17
- Units per $1k more
- 72 → 60
Revenue at every level of ad spend
Laurence models how each product's sales respond to ad spend, from the first dollar to the last. See exactly where the next dollar of ad spend stops paying back.
- Units per day at any daily ad spend
- Marginal CAC/CPA at current and planned spend
- TACOS or CAC/CPA targets held per product
- Today, $3,100
- 862 units
- Next unit costs $14
- Your plan, $3,600
- 895 units
- Next unit costs $17
- Push, $5,000
- 959 units
- Next unit costs $29
Low, base, and high cases
Every forecast comes with three cases, each built from your own history: last year's Prime Day and Black Friday, how organic sales followed ad spend, and how long they took to settle.
- Sales events planned from last year
- Every assumption visible and adjustable
- Forecasts update as you change any assumption
- Black Friday lift2.1x units
Last year’s Black Friday sold 2.3x a normal day at 20% off.
- Organic follows ads+1% → +0.4%
Since June, each 1% more ad units came with 0.4% more units sold without ads.
- Days for organic to catch up6 days
After the September spend increase, sales without ads settled in 5 to 7 days.
Broken down by product and search term
Laurence breaks each forecast down by product, and each product by the search terms its ad spend goes to. See where extra ad spend lands, how impression share changes, and what each additional unit costs.
- Units, ad spend, and marginal CAC/CPA per product
- Every search term group at current and planned spend
- Organic sales forecast separately
| Product | Units a day | Ad spend a day | Next unit costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cold brew concentrate, 32 oz | 371 → 389 | $1,320 → $1,560 | $15 → $18 |
| cold brew concentrate | Ad seen 31% → 38% | $610 → $720 | |
| iced coffee | Ad seen 12% → 16% | $380 → $450 | |
| coffee concentrate | Ad seen 24% → 29% | $330 → $390 | |
| Oat milk latte, 12 pack | 228 → 236 | $910 → $1,040 | $13 → $16 |
| Vanilla syrup, 25 oz | 141 → 146 | $540 → $620 | $11 → $14 |
| Variety pack, 24 count | 82 → 84 | $330 → $380 | $16 → $19 |
| Other listings, without ads | 40 → 40 |
